31 da Armada

Now are we going to enter a period in which Egyptian policy will change in which peace treaty with Israel breaks down and a situation in which Israel goes from a country that it is enormously secure from foreign threat to one that is again at risk from Egypt, particularly if Egypt begins re-arming. Second, what is the effect of a Islamist Egypt on the American position in the region? Egypt is the center of gravity of the Arab world — by far the largest country — and more than a match for Saudi Arabia or Iran or anyone else should should it choose to be. If this becomes an Islamist country, then the United States is entering a new phase in its war against the jihadists. Now, is it about to become a jihadist government in Cairo? I don’t think so but that’s really what the question is: what’s going to happen. And the least likely thing to happen is a long-term reformist democratic government.

Mais aqui com vídeo: Agenda: With George Friedman on Egypt | STRATFOR

Well, the military is in power in Egypt. Mubarak is a military man. Sadat was a military man. Nasser was a military man. If the military stays in power, in selecting one of its own to be president, I think everything stays in place and that would mean that the regime survives. It’s far more significant if the normal succession within the framework of the military doesn’t happen. One of the reasons that Gamal Mubarak was not going to be allowed by the military to take power is that he wasn’t part of the military the same way his father was. He wasn’t trusted by them. So, the issue here is a succession within the framework of the military.